At some point late in every in a poker tournament there is a hand that will push you over the top to put you in position to win the tournament, or else folding it to hang in there for a higher finishing place. Last night in a small tournament I got this hand. While I was 2nd in chips, the chip leader had a commanding lead. The two other players were on their way out.

I was big blind and managed to get an 8-8 in my pocket. The chip leader was to my right in the small blind. The two other players, who were just holding on, folded there hands. The chip leader bet half of my stack. While he liked being a bully, I knew that he wouldn’t bet that much unless he had something decent. If he had paired something in his pocket he would not have hesitated to go all in right there. I put him on 2 over cards against my 8-8. I realized that this was the decision hand for me in this tournament. If I had read him right, I would have a 50/50 shot of winning the hand. So I pushed my stack in and got called. He flipped over his cards and I saw that I had the correct read. He had an A-10 suited. The flop came a rainbow 4-7-9. Then the turn came a 3. I was feeling pretty good since I had an >88% chance of winning (he had 6 outs w/ just the river to go). Then on the river came a 10, and I realized my day was over. Five quick hands later, the other two players fell.

While I could have hung in there for a better finish (and more money), I don’t like playing for 2nd place. My general tournament strategy is mitigating risk early on and play high probability hands to stay somewhere in the middle chip count. Then when there starts getting fewer players start playing w/ a higher risk margin. Eventually I’ll get to the decision hand where I will either take the chip lead and be a heavy favorite to win the tournament, or else I’ll go down trying. If I have a 50/50 chance to win the tournament, I’ll take it every time. I’ve played some tournaments where I had to outdraw a flush when I was only holding trips w/ just the river to go. That time, the 20% chance worked out for me as I went on to win the tournament.

Update

Just after I finished this blog, I happened to go over to Daniel Negreanu website Full Contact Poker and read his article 2004 Borgata Poker Open - Part III where he describes a similar situation:

As for me, I don’t think I would have won this event when I was younger. When David was pounding me like an anvil, it would have been easy for me to give up and take a shot at playing a marginal hand in a big pot.

I guess I am still considered raw since I take shots at marginal hands for a big pot. There’s something to be said for the experience of the 2004 player of the year.